An alleged “flying saucer”
First off, I’d like to start by stating categorically that I’m not a conspiracy theorist. Now, I know a lot of people SAY they’re not conspiracy theorists, and then go on to espouse every imaginable conspiracy, but bear with me here. We need to talk about Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon (or UAPs, the fancy new acronym to replace the now defunct “UFO”). That’s right — we’re talking about flying saucers.
June this year (2021) saw the presentation by the US Department of Defence of their report on UAPs to the US senate, following hot on the heels of various verified sightings and accounts from official sources such as US Navy pilots (if you haven’t checked those out, you should — they’re genuinely shocking: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rO_M0hLlJ-Q). Like many people with an interest in space and the great unknown, I was very curious to hear what was in the report but had already pre-supposed the conclusion — that verified UAP sightings are numerous, but no one has any idea what they are. There was an additional conclusion that one possible explanation could be advanced technology from nations such as China and Russia, which would be of great concern given the apparent flight characteristics of these phenomena (they move with acceleration and dynamics that are totally beyond currently available technology).
As with most things, I’m no certainly no expert on any of this. But I do think it provides a great opportunity to discuss something very important in relation to human psychology, and something that on the whole we’re really not very good at processing correctly in our brains: probabilities of the improbable.
To demonstrate what I mean, let me offer up my own, totally unqualified, list of likelihoods of what UAP actually are. In descending order of likelihood, I’d like to suggest the following possibilities when considering any individual genuine UAP report (having already ruled out the conventional explanations such at weather, aircraft, hallucination etc.):
1 — UAPs are natural phenomena of terrestrial origin that are rare and not yet documented or understood by mainstream science
2 — UAPs are something that does not appear in this list
3 — UAPs are sightings of advanced technology developed by a terrestrial earth nation (like China)
4 — UAPs are sightings of advanced technology developed by a non-terrestrial earth based society
5 — UAPs are sightings of advanced technology developed by a non-terrestrial, non-earth based society (i.e. aliens)
If I were to estimate the probability of each, I’d imagine they would form some sort of sigmoid shape:
An suggestion of the proportional probabilities of each of my proposed solutions to UAP observations. Note that four and five are, by my estimation, orders of magnitude less likely than one and two.
What I want to focus on is number four on my list, why it sits higher than five, and why most people never even consider this possibility. What do I actually mean by this point? Before I expand on this, let me be clear — I’m not seriously suggesting that this is the explanation for UAPs — I’ve already shown in my list that actually some undocumented natural phenoma (such as ball lightning or atmospheric effects) are the most likely explanation in my own opinion. What I AM saying is that if we’re even going to consider aliens, then we HAVE to concede that option four is also a possibility and actually ends up being the more likely of the two. It goes like this:
The earth’s oceans are woefully undocumented. In fact, more than 80% of it remains unmapped and unexplored (https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/exploration.html). Every day we discover new species of animals on land that were previously unknown to science. By extension it’s likely that the oceans are filled with a vast number of species not yet discovered. Imagine, if you will, that hidden away somewhere in the depths is a sentient, advanced species, that has evolved capabilities well beyond that of humans, and they have developed technology that far supersedes our own. Possibly even advanced craft that on occasion, journey into the atmosphere above the seas, to observe the state of THEIR planet, and ensure that the lesser ape-like species aren’t on the verge of blowing everything up with their arsenal of nuclear toys?
Now, any rational person would have to read that above paragraph and immediately raise the objection that this seems incredibly unlikely. And again let me be clear, I’m not seriously suggesting this is the case (although if it turns out to be true, I’m saying that I called it). But consider the following:
1 — We know that earth is one of the very few planets, maybe even the only one, so far observed that is capable of sustaining life
2 — We know that life most likely started and evolved from the sea, and therefore sea-life on the whole has been around for a lot longer than land-life
3 — We know from those parts of the oceans that we have studied that life finds incredible and bizarre ways to adapt and evolve to its surroundings
Contrast these with possibility five on my list: that UAPs are actually sightings of alien craft originating from other planets. In order to arrive at that conclusion, we must pre-suppose the following:
1 — That there are other planets within our vicinity of the galaxy that are capable of evolving life, and those conditions have remained stable enough for said life to evolved beyond what we see here on earth
2 — That said life has existed long enough to solve the incredible technological problems of travelling across vast distances in anything like reasonable times (in fact, even though UAPs are often observed having incredible flight characteristics, they haven’t demonstrated the necessary abilities to make crossing the vast distances of interstellar space a feasible task)
3 — That said life has managed not to destroy itself given the incredible technologies that it must posses
Taking both sets of above points, and thinking purely rationally, which seems the more likely to you? Isn’t it curious that, in the US for example, the majority of the population believe that UAPs are evidence of advanced intelligence dwelling beyond earth (https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/06/30/most-americans-believe-in-intelligent-life-beyond-earth-few-see-ufos-as-a-major-national-security-threat/) with the capability to travel light years with the seeming sole purpose of scaring US Navy jets and desert dwelling folk, but on the whole people would out-of-hand dismiss as ridiculous the notion that they have actually come from right here on earth? But if we really think about it, which is actually more feasible and therefore more likely to be the case?
And so we get to the point that I actually want to make, because this isn’t really an article about flying saucers. I just want to make one point — that one the whole, humans are very bad at correctly assessing the likelihoods of possibilities when presented with ambiguous data, and that’s often because we assess information primarily using the emotional parts of our brain rather than the logical, even when we think we’re being logical. If possibility four on my list somehow seems more ludicrous and repulsive to you than does possibility five, then you’re experiencing right now the exact phenomenon I’m describing. There are various reasons why the idea of aliens on another planet might seem more appetising than “aliens” on this planet:
1 — The idea of a species so advanced dwelling undetected right under our noses (literally) may be more shocking (like discovering an intruder in your bedroom closet)
2 — The idea of life on other planets suggests we are not alone, which may be comforting to some
3 — Precisely because the possibility of advanced, space faring aliens is so remote, the very idea of it is glamorous and far more exciting to espouse at dinner parties than fish with fancy airplanes
However, comparing these two possibilities in the first place misses the most important point of all: right now, we simply don’t know what UAP are. The only way we can stand a chance of knowing is by collecting more data, and until that point any conclusion we draw is likely to be unfounded and overly subject to emotional reasoning than empirical reasoning.
So if I’ve managed to put one idea in your head, I would hope it’s that if we want to arrive at useful conclusions (and dare I say, beliefs) about the world we live in, then our ideas require regular reality checks, and a careful deconfliction from emotion. A lot of the time the only intellectually honest answer to these questions is simply: we don’t know.
Yet.